Analysts have adjusted their price forecasts for European Union carbon permits for the years 2024 to 2026, citing record low figures in emissions covered by Europe's carbon market observed last year. According to a Reuters survey of eight analysts, the average forecast for EU Allowances (EUAs) is 63.96 euros per metric ton for 2024 and 74.00 euros for 2025, marking decreases of 13.7% and 11.2% respectively from forecasts made in January. Notably, the average forecast for the second quarter of 2024 stands at 62.30 euros per ton, representing a significant decline of 18.8% compared to the January forecast of 76.76 euros per ton.
The European Union's Emissions Trading System (ETS) requires entities across sectors such as manufacturing, power generation, and aviation to pay for each ton of carbon dioxide they emit by surrendering carbon allowances. This mechanism forms a critical part of Europe's efforts to achieve its climate targets. Recent data published by the European Commission reveals a record 15.5% reduction in emissions covered by the ETS in 2023, attributed in part to a surge in renewable power output.
Trevor Sikorski, head of natural gas and carbon at Energy Aspects, underscores a bearish outlook for EUA fundamentals, projecting another substantial year-on-year drop in power emissions for 2024. As a result, the benchmark EU carbon contract is currently trading around 66 euros per ton, reflecting an approximate 20% decrease since the year's commencement.
Furthermore, the inclusion of the shipping industry in the ETS starting from January 2024 has introduced new dynamics. Shipping firms are now required to surrender permits to cover a percentage of their intra-EU voyages, with coverage set to increase to 70% in 2025 and reach 100% by 2026. Despite these developments, the average price forecast for 2026 is 92.48 euros per ton, indicating a 7.6% reduction from the January forecast of 100.13 euros per ton.
These adjustments in price forecasts reflect evolving market conditions influenced by regulatory changes, shifts in emissions trends, and broader economic factors impacting carbon pricing within the European Union.
